Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arch#247 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Arch pick
40%63%
GUESS · 1 mapedge Arch +23%Arch · 4 maps
MirageGUESS ban
50%44%
GUESS · 0 mapsedge GUESS +6%Arch · 5 maps
AnubisArch ban
40%29%
GUESS · 1 mapedge GUESS +11%Arch · 3 maps
AncientGUESS ban
50%57%
GUESS · 0 mapsedge Arch +7%Arch · 3 maps
InfernoArch ban
60%50%
GUESS · 1 mapedge GUESS +10%Arch · 0 maps
OverpassGUESS pick
50%40%
GUESS · 0 mapsedge GUESS +10%Arch · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGUESS remove Mirage
2. BanArch remove Inferno
3. PickGUESS take Overpass
4. PickArch take Dust2
5. BanArch remove Anubis
6. BanGUESS remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
GUESS 50%Arch 50%
The model gave 50% on GUESS — the map was taken by GUESS.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
GUESS 46%Arch 54%
The model gave 54% on Arch — the map was taken by GUESS.
Model check result
Model favoriteArch · 54%
Series resultGUESS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2