RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
50%63%
Sharks · 6 mapsedge Yawara +13%Yawara · 15 maps
AncientSharks pick
58%44%
Sharks · 8 mapsedge Sharks +14%Yawara · 12 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
50%65%
Sharks · 0 mapsedge Yawara +15%Yawara · 16 maps
NukeYawara ban
65%50%
Sharks · 13 mapsedge Sharks +15%Yawara · 0 maps
AnubisYawara ban
38%45%
Sharks · 4 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%55%
Sharks · 4 mapsedge Sharks +8%Yawara · 7 maps
OverpassSharks ban
29%67%
Sharks · 3 mapsedge Yawara +38%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSharks remove Dust2
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickSharks take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Anubis
6. BanSharks remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (63% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Sharks 34%Yawara 66%
The model gave 66% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Sharks 67%Yawara 33%
The model gave 67% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Sharks 58%Yawara 42%
The model gave 58% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 75%
Series resultSharks 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3