NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
60%62%
Color · 6 mapsnearly even -2%Butterfly · 9 maps
AncientButterfly pick
67%69%
Color · 5 mapsnearly even -2%Butterfly · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%67%
Color · 4 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 8 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
57%25%
Color · 3 mapsedge Color +32%Butterfly · 8 maps
NukeColor ban
50%64%
Color · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +14%Butterfly · 10 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
57%40%
Color · 3 mapsedge Color +17%Butterfly · 1 map
CacheColor ban
33%67%
Color · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +34%Butterfly · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanColor remove Nuke
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickColor take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. BanColor remove Cache
DeciderMirage (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
Color 44%Butterfly 56%
The model gave 56% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Color.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Color 51%Butterfly 49%
The model gave 51% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 53%
Series resultColor 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2