RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle pick
67%68%
Inner Circle · 8 mapsnearly even -1%GenOne · 37 maps
NukeGenOne pick
60%60%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 26 maps
AncientInner Circle ban
56%46%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%GenOne · 20 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
56%37%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +19%GenOne · 15 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%57%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%GenOne · 10 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%53%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsnearly even -3%GenOne · 11 maps
MirageGenOne ban
42%50%
Inner Circle · 8 mapsedge GenOne +8%GenOne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickInner Circle take Dust2
4. PickGenOne take Nuke
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Inner Circle 45%GenOne 55%
The model gave 55% on GenOne — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Inner Circle 62%GenOne 38%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 62%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2