European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 0:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
38%61%
illwill · 9 mapsedge Lavked +23%Lavked · 32 maps
Dust2illwill pick
54%42%
illwill · 9 mapsedge illwill +12%Lavked · 20 maps
Nukepossible decider
25%55%
illwill · 4 mapsedge Lavked +30%Lavked · 18 maps
Ancientillwill ban
43%80%
illwill · 3 mapsedge Lavked +37%Lavked · 11 maps
Anubisillwill ban
33%54%
illwill · 2 mapsedge Lavked +21%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoLavked ban
50%31%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +19%Lavked · 9 maps
OverpassLavked ban
71%50%
illwill · 3 mapsedge illwill +21%Lavked · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Ancient
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. Banillwill remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (25% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
illwill 50%Lavked 50%
The model gave 50% on illwill — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 70%
Series resultLavked 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1