XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
81%62%
Alliance · 12 mapsedge Alliance +19%Nemesis · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%53%
Alliance · 9 mapsedge Alliance +9%Nemesis · 11 maps
NukeNemesis pick
57%77%
Alliance · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +20%Nemesis · 9 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
55%50%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Alliance +5%Nemesis · 8 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%69%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +19%Nemesis · 9 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
36%50%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 0 maps
OverpassAlliance ban
29%43%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Dust2
6. BanAlliance remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (62% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Alliance 26%Nemesis 74%
The model gave 74% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Alliance 75%Nemesis 25%
The model gave 75% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Alliance 58%Nemesis 42%
The model gave 58% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 56%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3