NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 0:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
55%54%
illwill · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Honvéd · 31 map
MirageHonvéd pick
40%53%
illwill · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +13%Honvéd · 26 maps
Ancientillwill ban
40%47%
illwill · 1 mapedge Honvéd +7%Honvéd · 15 maps
Defaultillwill ban
25%70%
illwill · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +45%Honvéd · 6 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
50%42%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +8%Honvéd · 8 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
50%33%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +17%Honvéd · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
29%56%
illwill · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +27%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. Banillwill remove Default
DeciderNuke (29% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
illwill 13%Honvéd 87%
The model gave 88% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 70%
Series resultHonvéd 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1