RES Showdown 4 Europe: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · win 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientB8 pick
50%50%
B8 · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Sangrija · 0 maps
MirageSangrija pick
40%50%
B8 · 11 mapsedge Sangrija +10%Sangrija · 0 maps
Dust2Sangrija ban
60%50%
B8 · 6 mapsedge B8 +10%Sangrija · 0 maps
OverpassSangrija ban
56%50%
B8 · 5 mapsedge B8 +6%Sangrija · 0 maps
InfernoB8 ban
50%50%
B8 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sangrija · 0 maps
NukeB8 ban
50%50%
B8 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sangrija · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Inferno
2. BanSangrija remove Dust2
3. PickB8 take Ancient
4. PickSangrija take Mirage
5. BanSangrija remove Overpass
6. BanB8 remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
B8 57%Sangrija 43%
The model gave 57% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
B8 53%Sangrija 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 93%
Series resultB8 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2