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Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fake do Biru#93 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
paiN Academy#286 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fake do Biru pick
50%44%
Fake do Biru · 14 mapsedge Fake do Biru +6%paiN Academy · 12 maps
MiragepaiN Academy pick
38%44%
Fake do Biru · 4 mapsedge paiN Academy +6%paiN Academy · 14 maps
InfernoFake do Biru ban
56%60%
Fake do Biru · 5 mapsnearly even -4%paiN Academy · 6 maps
AnubisFake do Biru ban
50%60%
Fake do Biru · 4 mapsedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 6 maps
NukepaiN Academy ban
75%44%
Fake do Biru · 4 mapsedge Fake do Biru +31%paiN Academy · 5 maps
OverpasspaiN Academy ban
50%43%
Fake do Biru · 2 mapsedge Fake do Biru +7%paiN Academy · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%57%
Fake do Biru · 1 mapnearly even +3%paiN Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFake do Biru remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
3. PickFake do Biru take Dust2
4. PickpaiN Academy take Mirage
5. BanpaiN Academy remove Overpass
6. BanFake do Biru remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Fake do Biru 81%paiN Academy 19%
The model gave 81% on Fake do Biru — the map was taken by Fake do Biru.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Fake do Biru 37%paiN Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Fake do Biru 56%paiN Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on Fake do Biru — the map was taken by Fake do Biru.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN Academy · 53%
Series resultFake do Biru 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3