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European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%31%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +19%The Last Resort · 9 maps
AncientThe Last Resort pick
64%62%
BASEMENT BOYS · 7 mapsnearly even +2%The Last Resort · 9 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
36%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 7 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%The Last Resort · 4 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
67%30%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +37%The Last Resort · 6 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%64%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge The Last Resort +24%The Last Resort · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%71%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge The Last Resort +21%The Last Resort · 3 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
67%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +27%The Last Resort · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickThe Last Resort take Ancient
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
BASEMENT BOYS 49%The Last Resort 51%
The model gave 51% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 77%The Last Resort 23%
The model gave 77% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
BASEMENT BOYS 69%The Last Resort 31%
The model gave 69% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 67%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3