European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
61%57%
Lavked · 32 mapsnearly even +4%Just Players · 10 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
42%38%
Lavked · 20 mapsnearly even +4%Just Players · 9 maps
NukeJust Players ban
55%42%
Lavked · 18 mapsedge Lavked +13%Just Players · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
80%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +30%Just Players · 10 maps
AnubisJust Players pick
54%71%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Just Players +17%Just Players · 3 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%60%
Lavked · 4 mapsedge Just Players +10%Just Players · 6 maps
InfernoLavked ban
31%50%
Lavked · 9 mapsedge Just Players +19%Just Players · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Inferno
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickJust Players take Anubis
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanLavked remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (80% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Lavked 50%Just Players 50%
The model gave 50% on Lavked — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 53%
Series resultJust Players 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1