AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHonvéd pick
60%54%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge los kogutos +6%Honvéd · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%58%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +8%Honvéd · 8 maps
Ancientlos kogutos pick
60%50%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge los kogutos +10%Honvéd · 4 maps
Overpasslos kogutos ban
50%29%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +21%Honvéd · 3 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
50%67%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Honvéd · 2 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%60%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 1 map
Infernolos kogutos ban
50%40%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +10%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. Picklos kogutos take Ancient
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. Banlos kogutos remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:19
los kogutos 53%Honvéd 47%
The model gave 53% on los kogutos — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
los kogutos 36%Honvéd 64%
The model gave 64% on Honvéd — the map was taken by los kogutos.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
los kogutos 42%Honvéd 58%
The model gave 58% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 62%
Series resultHonvéd 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3