Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
pre-match prediction
Falcons Force#152 in the worldseries probability
44%56%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
Vexar#138 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
43%50%
Falcons Force · 3 mapsedge Vexar +7%Vexar · 18 maps
MirageFalcons Force pick
64%54%
Falcons Force · 7 mapsedge Falcons Force +10%Vexar · 9 maps
NukeVexar ban
22%38%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Vexar +16%Vexar · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%60%
Falcons Force · 5 mapsedge Vexar +16%Vexar · 6 maps
DefaultFalcons Force ban
50%55%
Falcons Force · 0 mapsedge Vexar +5%Vexar · 7 maps
Dust2Falcons Force ban
33%56%
Falcons Force · 2 mapsedge Vexar +23%Vexar · 5 maps
AnubisVexar ban
40%38%
Falcons Force · 1 mapnearly even +2%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons Force remove Dust2
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons Force take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanFalcons Force remove Default
DeciderInferno (44% / 60%)