European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy ban
50%58%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +8%Honvéd · 8 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
60%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Honvéd · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 4 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
63%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Honvéd · 1 map
OverpassInner Circle Academy pick
67%29%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +38%Honvéd · 3 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
67%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Honvéd · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%40%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Honvéd · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Overpass
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Inner Circle Academy 57%Honvéd 43%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Inner Circle Academy 56%Honvéd 44%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 69%
Series resultHonvéd 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2