European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eternal premium#208 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEntropy ban
50%60%
Entropy · 8 mapsedge eternal premium +10%eternal premium · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
36%38%
Entropy · 10 mapsnearly even -2%eternal premium · 4 maps
AnubisEntropy pick
54%29%
Entropy · 9 mapsedge Entropy +25%eternal premium · 3 maps
NukeEntropy ban
40%50%
Entropy · 1 mapedge eternal premium +10%eternal premium · 8 maps
Infernoeternal premium ban
38%57%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge eternal premium +19%eternal premium · 3 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
50%40%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge Entropy +10%eternal premium · 1 map
Overpasseternal premium pick
38%60%
Entropy · 4 mapsedge eternal premium +22%eternal premium · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Nuke
2. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
3. PickEntropy take Anubis
4. Picketernal premium take Overpass
5. Baneternal premium remove Inferno
6. BanEntropy remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (36% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Entropy 77%eternal premium 23%
The model gave 77% on Entropy — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
Entropy 45%eternal premium 55%
The model gave 55% on eternal premium — the map was taken by eternal premium.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 54%
Series resulteternal premium 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2