Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
42%56%
Mai Tai · 15 mapsedge Revise +14%Revise · 5 maps
DefaultRevise pick
42%60%
Mai Tai · 15 mapsedge Revise +18%Revise · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
42%57%
Mai Tai · 8 mapsedge Revise +15%Revise · 3 maps
Dust2Mai Tai ban
38%56%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Revise +18%Revise · 5 maps
CacheRevise ban
50%43%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Mai Tai +7%Revise · 3 maps
AnubisMai Tai ban
33%60%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Revise +27%Revise · 1 map
NukeRevise ban
33%50%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Revise +17%Revise · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMai Tai remove Anubis
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickMai Tai take Mirage
4. PickRevise take Default
5. BanRevise remove Cache
6. BanMai Tai remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (42% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Mai Tai 33%Revise 67%
The model gave 67% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoriteRevise · 67%
Series resultRevise 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1