AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LPH#150 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd ban
55%67%
Honvéd · 7 mapsedge LPH +12%LPH · 2 maps
MirageLPH ban
50%50%
Honvéd · 8 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 0 maps
AncientHonvéd pick
57%60%
Honvéd · 3 mapsnearly even -3%LPH · 1 map
OverpassLPH ban
29%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge LPH +21%LPH · 0 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
60%60%
Honvéd · 1 mapnearly even +0%LPH · 1 map
InfernoLPH pick
40%60%
Honvéd · 1 mapedge LPH +20%LPH · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. PickHonvéd take Ancient
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Overpass
6. BanHonvéd remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Honvéd 50%LPH 50%
The model gave 50% on Honvéd — the map was taken by LPH.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Honvéd 47%LPH 53%
The model gave 53% on LPH — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Honvéd 38%LPH 62%
The model gave 63% on LPH — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 61%
Series resultHonvéd 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3