CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
38%50%
MEIA NOITE · 9 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +12%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 4 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
38%67%
MEIA NOITE · 4 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +29%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
27%40%
MEIA NOITE · 7 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +13%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
Dust2QUINTESSÊNCIA pick
56%71%
MEIA NOITE · 5 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +15%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 3 maps
DefaultQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
75%50%
MEIA NOITE · 4 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +25%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 0 maps
InfernoMEIA NOITE ban
57%60%
MEIA NOITE · 3 mapsnearly even -3%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 map
NukeQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
50%50%
MEIA NOITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%QUINTESSÊNCIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
2. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Nuke
3. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
4. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Dust2
5. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Default
6. BanMEIA NOITE remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (27% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
MEIA NOITE 39%QUINTESSÊNCIA 61%
The model gave 61% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Cacheprediction correct13:16
MEIA NOITE 21%QUINTESSÊNCIA 79%
The model gave 79% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteQUINTESSÊNCIA · 60%
Series resultQUINTESSÊNCIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2