Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
55%54%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 mapsnearly even +1%Honvéd · 31 map
MirageHonvéd pick
55%53%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Honvéd · 26 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%56%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Honvéd · 5 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%47%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Honvéd · 15 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
70%42%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +28%Honvéd · 8 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
50%33%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%Honvéd · 8 maps
Defaultex-Zero Tenacity ban
57%73%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +16%Honvéd · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Default
DeciderNuke (53% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
ex-Zero Tenacity 48%Honvéd 52%
The model gave 52% on Honvéd — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 79%Honvéd 21%
The model gave 79% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 52%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2