AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSuba#293 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeKOLESIE pick
61%50%
KOLESIE · 19 mapsedge KOLESIE +11%eSuba · 0 maps
Dust2KOLESIE ban
39%33%
KOLESIE · 14 mapsedge KOLESIE +6%eSuba · 2 maps
AncienteSuba pick
41%50%
KOLESIE · 13 mapsedge eSuba +9%eSuba · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%60%
KOLESIE · 12 mapsnearly even +3%eSuba · 1 map
OverpasseSuba ban
60%50%
KOLESIE · 11 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%eSuba · 0 maps
AnubiseSuba ban
54%40%
KOLESIE · 9 mapsedge KOLESIE +14%eSuba · 1 map
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%57%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge eSuba +7%eSuba · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BaneSuba remove Anubis
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. PickeSuba take Ancient
5. BaneSuba remove Overpass
6. BanKOLESIE remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
KOLESIE 53%eSuba 47%
The model gave 53% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
KOLESIE 64%eSuba 36%
The model gave 64% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 78%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2