CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Subtop De France pick
33%40%
Subtop De France · 5 mapsedge DONSTU +7%DONSTU · 11 maps
AnubisDONSTU pick
60%56%
Subtop De France · 1 mapnearly even +4%DONSTU · 14 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
50%42%
Subtop De France · 4 mapsedge Subtop De France +8%DONSTU · 8 maps
AncientSubtop De France ban
29%45%
Subtop De France · 3 mapsedge DONSTU +16%DONSTU · 7 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
50%43%
Subtop De France · 2 mapsedge Subtop De France +7%DONSTU · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%71%
Subtop De France · 1 mapedge DONSTU +11%DONSTU · 3 maps
DefaultSubtop De France ban
50%60%
Subtop De France · 2 mapsedge DONSTU +10%DONSTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSubtop De France remove Ancient
2. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
3. PickSubtop De France take Dust2
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
6. BanSubtop De France remove Default
DeciderCache (60% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:16
Subtop De France 61%DONSTU 39%
The model gave 61% on Subtop De France — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Subtop De France 35%DONSTU 65%
The model gave 65% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 57%
Series resultDONSTU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2