Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NADEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
50%33%
Eternal Fire · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%NADE · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%60%
Eternal Fire · 9 mapsnearly even +2%NADE · 1 map
MirageNADE pick
58%50%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%NADE · 2 maps
AnubisNADE ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 6 mapsnearly even +0%NADE · 0 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NADE · 0 maps
CacheNADE ban
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%NADE · 0 maps
OverpassEternal Fire ban
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%NADE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanNADE remove Anubis
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickNADE take Mirage
5. BanNADE remove Cache
6. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (62% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Eternal Fire 49%NADE 51%
The model gave 51% on NADE — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Eternal Fire 69%NADE 31%
The model gave 69% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 68%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2