Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
60%50%
Dark Tigre · 1 mapedge Dark Tigre +10%SINNERS · 8 maps
MirageSINNERS pick
50%55%
Dark Tigre · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +5%SINNERS · 7 maps
AncientSINNERS ban
50%30%
Dark Tigre · 0 mapsedge Dark Tigre +20%SINNERS · 6 maps
InfernoDark Tigre ban
50%40%
Dark Tigre · 0 mapsedge Dark Tigre +10%SINNERS · 6 maps
CacheDark Tigre ban
50%38%
Dark Tigre · 0 mapsedge Dark Tigre +12%SINNERS · 4 maps
NukeDark Tigre pick
50%33%
Dark Tigre · 0 mapsedge Dark Tigre +17%SINNERS · 2 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
40%50%
Dark Tigre · 1 mapedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Tigre remove Cache
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. PickDark Tigre take Nuke
4. PickSINNERS take Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
6. BanDark Tigre remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed2:13
Dark Tigre 65%SINNERS 35%
The model gave 65% on Dark Tigre — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Dark Tigre 57%SINNERS 43%
The model gave 57% on Dark Tigre — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 83%
Series resultSINNERS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2