NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
55%54%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 mapsnearly even +1%Honvéd · 31 map
MirageHonvéd pick
64%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%Honvéd · 26 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
75%38%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +37%Honvéd · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%56%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 5 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%44%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%Honvéd · 14 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%33%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%Honvéd · 8 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%44%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (56% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
ex-Zero Tenacity 50%Honvéd 50%
The model gave 50% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultHonvéd 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1