Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sashi#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
67%29%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge FOKUS +38%Sashi · 13 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
38%50%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge Sashi +12%Sashi · 12 maps
AncientFOKUS pick
53%50%
FOKUS · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Sashi · 6 maps
InfernoSashi pick
56%80%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge Sashi +24%Sashi · 6 maps
OverpassSashi ban
67%67%
FOKUS · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%78%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge Sashi +18%Sashi · 5 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%63%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge Sashi +13%Sashi · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanSashi remove Dust2
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickSashi take Inferno
5. BanSashi remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderCache (60% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
FOKUS 28%Sashi 72%
The model gave 72% on Sashi — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
FOKUS 53%Sashi 47%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 55%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2