Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 13:4series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 13:4
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%78%
Vitality · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +28%100 Thieves · 14 maps
NukeVitality ban
63%50%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Vitality +13%100 Thieves · 10 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%56%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%100 Thieves · 12 maps
Inferno100 Thieves ban
63%50%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Vitality +13%100 Thieves · 8 maps
AnubisVitality ban
25%50%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +25%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
57%55%
Vitality · 3 mapsnearly even +2%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Overpass100 Thieves ban
67%50%
Vitality · 2 mapsedge Vitality +17%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
3. BanVitality remove Anubis
4. Ban100 Thieves remove Overpass
5. BanVitality remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Vitality 63%100 Thieves 37%
The model gave 63% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 85%
Series resultVitality 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1