CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Illyrians pick
45%50%
Noir Verse · 16 mapsedge Illyrians +5%Illyrians · 6 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
67%64%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsnearly even +3%Illyrians · 7 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
42%71%
Noir Verse · 15 mapsedge Illyrians +29%Illyrians · 3 maps
AncientIllyrians ban
53%63%
Noir Verse · 13 mapsedge Illyrians +10%Illyrians · 4 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
50%40%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsedge Noir Verse +10%Illyrians · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
33%40%
Noir Verse · 8 mapsedge Illyrians +7%Illyrians · 1 map
NukeNoir Verse ban
36%50%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Illyrians +14%Illyrians · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
2. BanIllyrians remove Cache
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickIllyrians take Dust2
5. BanIllyrians remove Ancient
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Noir Verse 56%Illyrians 44%
The model gave 56% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Noir Verse 40%Illyrians 60%
The model gave 60% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 54%
Series resultIllyrians 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2