CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Illyrians#144 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
63%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 20 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +13%Illyrians · 6 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
74%40%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 23 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +34%Illyrians · 1 map
MirageIllyrians pick
50%67%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 mapsedge Illyrians +17%Illyrians · 8 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
64%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 18 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%Illyrians · 0 maps
InfernoIllyrians ban
63%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +13%Illyrians · 2 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
62%71%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsedge Illyrians +9%Illyrians · 3 maps
Defaultex-Zero Tenacity ban
54%50%
ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Illyrians · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Default
DeciderDust2 (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
ex-Zero Tenacity 31%Illyrians 69%
The model gave 69% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Cacheprediction correct13:2
ex-Zero Tenacity 83%Illyrians 17%
The model gave 83% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
ex-Zero Tenacity 63%Illyrians 37%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 60%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3