CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Illyrians#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNoir Verse pick
65%69%
Noir Verse · 16 mapsnearly even -4%Illyrians · 9 maps
Dust2Illyrians pick
48%45%
Noir Verse · 17 mapsnearly even +3%Illyrians · 7 maps
AncientIllyrians ban
50%63%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsedge Illyrians +13%Illyrians · 4 maps
AnubisNoir Verse ban
42%71%
Noir Verse · 15 mapsedge Illyrians +29%Illyrians · 3 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
50%33%
Noir Verse · 14 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Illyrians · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
31%50%
Noir Verse · 9 mapsedge Illyrians +19%Illyrians · 2 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
36%50%
Noir Verse · 7 mapsedge Illyrians +14%Illyrians · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
2. BanIllyrians remove Cache
3. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
4. PickIllyrians take Dust2
5. BanIllyrians remove Ancient
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (31% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Noir Verse 39%Illyrians 61%
The model gave 61% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Noir Verse 49%Illyrians 51%
The model gave 51% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 63%
Series resultNoir Verse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2