CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
63%64%
Black Phoenix · 50 mapsnearly even -1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 21 map
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
52%75%
Black Phoenix · 17 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +23%ex-Zero Tenacity · 24 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
50%64%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +14%ex-Zero Tenacity · 18 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
45%50%
Black Phoenix · 25 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +5%ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 maps
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity ban
64%63%
Black Phoenix · 18 mapsnearly even +1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
26%62%
Black Phoenix · 19 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +36%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%57%
Black Phoenix · 6 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +7%ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Black Phoenix 52%ex-Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Black Phoenix 25%ex-Zero Tenacity 75%
The model gave 75% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 68%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2