CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASONIC#187 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%35%
MASONIC · 2 mapsedge MASONIC +15%Lavked · 19 maps
Dust2MASONIC ban
60%57%
MASONIC · 1 mapnearly even +3%Lavked · 19 maps
NukeMASONIC pick
43%50%
MASONIC · 3 mapsedge Lavked +7%Lavked · 16 maps
AncientMASONIC ban
33%35%
MASONIC · 2 mapsnearly even -2%Lavked · 16 maps
AnubisLavked pick
50%54%
MASONIC · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoLavked ban
50%36%
MASONIC · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +14%Lavked · 7 maps
CacheLavked ban
43%40%
MASONIC · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASONIC remove Dust2
2. BanLavked remove Cache
3. PickMASONIC take Nuke
4. PickLavked take Anubis
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanMASONIC remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 35%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
MASONIC 51%Lavked 49%
The model gave 51% on MASONIC — the map was taken by Lavked.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
MASONIC 53%Lavked 47%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
MASONIC 65%Lavked 35%
The model gave 65% on MASONIC — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 63%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3