CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeButterfly pick
57%61%
Butterfly · 17 mapsnearly even -4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 19 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
65%65%
Butterfly · 13 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 22 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
63%76%
Butterfly · 4 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +13%ex-Zero Tenacity · 25 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
19%65%
Butterfly · 12 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +46%ex-Zero Tenacity · 16 maps
Mirageex-Zero Tenacity ban
73%47%
Butterfly · 11 mapsedge Butterfly +26%ex-Zero Tenacity · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
56%57%
Butterfly · 5 mapsnearly even -1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
59%50%
Butterfly · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +9%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanButterfly remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickButterfly take Nuke
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Mirage
6. BanButterfly remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Butterfly 10%ex-Zero Tenacity 90%
The model gave 90% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
Butterfly 78%ex-Zero Tenacity 22%
The model gave 78% on Butterfly — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2