CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
53%62%
Nexus · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +9%Black Phoenix · 57 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
60%33%
Nexus · 11 mapsedge Nexus +27%Black Phoenix · 23 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
56%48%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge Nexus +8%Black Phoenix · 27 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%46%
Nexus · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Black Phoenix · 20 maps
NukeNexus ban
40%50%
Nexus · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +10%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
InfernoNexus ban
44%65%
Nexus · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +21%Black Phoenix · 19 maps
DefaultNexus pick
75%55%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +20%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Nuke
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickNexus take Default
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanNexus remove Inferno
DeciderCache (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Nexus 38%Black Phoenix 62%
The model gave 62% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
Nexus 77%Black Phoenix 23%
The model gave 77% on Nexus — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 62%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2