ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Permitta#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
31%45%
BERG · 12 mapsedge Permitta +14%Permitta · 18 maps
AncientBERG pick
53%35%
BERG · 13 mapsedge BERG +18%Permitta · 13 maps
Miragepossible decider
38%60%
BERG · 9 mapsedge Permitta +22%Permitta · 11 maps
AnubisPermitta ban
38%46%
BERG · 4 mapsedge Permitta +8%Permitta · 9 maps
Dust2BERG ban
43%30%
BERG · 3 mapsedge BERG +13%Permitta · 6 maps
CacheBERG ban
60%64%
BERG · 1 mapnearly even -4%Permitta · 7 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
45%50%
BERG · 7 mapsedge Permitta +5%Permitta · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. BanPermitta remove Inferno
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Anubis
6. BanBERG remove Cache
DeciderMirage (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
BERG 70%Permitta 30%
The model gave 70% on BERG — the map was taken by Permitta.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
BERG 33%Permitta 67%
The model gave 67% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 62%
Series resultPermitta 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2