ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFortress pick
36%57%
Fortress · 7 mapsedge LPH +21%LPH · 10 maps
CacheLPH ban
20%29%
Fortress · 11 mapsedge LPH +9%LPH · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
30%50%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge LPH +20%LPH · 8 maps
AnubisLPH ban
36%50%
Fortress · 7 mapsedge LPH +14%LPH · 4 maps
InfernoLPH pick
30%67%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge LPH +37%LPH · 5 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
40%58%
Fortress · 1 mapedge LPH +18%LPH · 8 maps
MirageFortress ban
20%50%
Fortress · 6 mapsedge LPH +30%LPH · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanLPH remove Cache
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. BanFortress remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (30% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Fortress 39%LPH 61%
The model gave 61% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
Fortress 16%LPH 84%
The model gave 84% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 61%
Series resultLPH 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2