ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MAYBE ban
22%45%
MAYBE · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +23%Noir Verse · 16 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%44%
MAYBE · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Noir Verse · 14 maps
MirageMAYBE pick
56%63%
MAYBE · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Noir Verse · 12 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
50%47%
MAYBE · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Noir Verse · 13 maps
AncientMAYBE ban
38%50%
MAYBE · 4 mapsedge Noir Verse +12%Noir Verse · 10 maps
DefaultNoir Verse ban
60%33%
MAYBE · 1 mapedge MAYBE +27%Noir Verse · 8 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
50%36%
MAYBE · 2 mapsedge MAYBE +14%Noir Verse · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMAYBE remove Dust2
2. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
3. PickMAYBE take Mirage
4. PickNoir Verse take Cache
5. BanNoir Verse remove Default
6. BanMAYBE remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (43% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
MAYBE 40%Noir Verse 60%
The model gave 60% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
MAYBE 40%Noir Verse 60%
The model gave 60% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 52%
Series resultNoir Verse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2