ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
38%67%
BERG · 9 mapsedge mellren +29%mellren · 14 maps
AncientBERG pick
50%55%
BERG · 14 mapsedge mellren +5%mellren · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
45%60%
BERG · 7 mapsedge mellren +15%mellren · 11 maps
Nukemellren ban
29%22%
BERG · 13 mapsedge BERG +7%mellren · 5 maps
Dust2BERG ban
43%55%
BERG · 3 mapsedge mellren +12%mellren · 7 maps
AnubisBERG ban
38%71%
BERG · 4 mapsedge mellren +33%mellren · 3 maps
Defaultmellren ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%mellren · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Default
6. BanBERG remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (45% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
BERG 48%mellren 52%
The model gave 52% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
BERG 57%mellren 43%
The model gave 57% on BERG — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 72%
Series resultmellren 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2