ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLPH ban
56%60%
Entropy · 35 mapsnearly even -4%LPH · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
55%53%
Entropy · 16 mapsnearly even +2%LPH · 11 maps
Dust2Entropy ban
30%58%
Entropy · 16 mapsedge LPH +28%LPH · 8 maps
CacheEntropy pick
52%29%
Entropy · 17 mapsedge Entropy +23%LPH · 3 maps
AnubisLPH ban
41%50%
Entropy · 13 mapsedge LPH +9%LPH · 6 maps
InfernoLPH pick
50%73%
Entropy · 8 mapsedge LPH +23%LPH · 7 maps
NukeEntropy ban
56%54%
Entropy · 5 mapsnearly even +2%LPH · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEntropy remove Dust2
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. PickEntropy take Cache
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. BanEntropy remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (55% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:14
Entropy 49%LPH 51%
The model gave 51% on LPH — the map was taken by Entropy.
Mirageprediction correct13:16
Entropy 49%LPH 51%
The model gave 51% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
Entropy 52%LPH 48%
The model gave 52% on Entropy — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 51%
Series resultLPH 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3