ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ryvex#181 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
46%38%
Permitta · 22 mapsedge Permitta +8%Ryvex · 4 maps
AncientRyvex pick
41%67%
Permitta · 18 mapsedge Ryvex +26%Ryvex · 5 maps
MiragePermitta ban
50%57%
Permitta · 14 mapsedge Ryvex +7%Ryvex · 3 maps
AnubisRyvex ban
50%50%
Permitta · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Ryvex · 0 maps
CacheRyvex ban
64%43%
Permitta · 7 mapsedge Permitta +21%Ryvex · 3 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
30%38%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Ryvex +8%Ryvex · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Ryvex +10%Ryvex · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanRyvex remove Anubis
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickRyvex take Ancient
5. BanRyvex remove Cache
6. BanPermitta remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Permitta 23%Ryvex 77%
The model gave 77% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Permitta.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Permitta 62%Ryvex 38%
The model gave 62% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 62%
Series resultPermitta 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2