CROSSFIRE Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientraisedbypixels ban
64%50%
regain · 7 mapsedge regain +14%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Dust2raisedbypixels pick
67%50%
regain · 2 mapsedge regain +17%raisedbypixels · 2 maps
Infernoregain pick
63%50%
regain · 4 mapsedge regain +13%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Mirageregain ban
33%50%
regain · 2 mapsedge raisedbypixels +17%raisedbypixels · 2 maps
Overpassregain ban
40%40%
regain · 1 mapnearly even +0%raisedbypixels · 1 map
Anubisraisedbypixels ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%raisedbypixels · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%40%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +10%raisedbypixels · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Mirage
2. Banraisedbypixels remove Ancient
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. Pickraisedbypixels take Dust2
5. Banraisedbypixels remove Anubis
6. Banregain remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
regain 66%raisedbypixels 34%
The model gave 66% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
regain 31%raisedbypixels 69%
The model gave 69% on raisedbypixels — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 65%
Series resultregain 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2