AR3NA Epicbet Open Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSuba#293 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DEFEATERS pick
33%60%
eSuba · 2 mapsedge DEFEATERS +27%DEFEATERS · 1 map
InfernoDEFEATERS ban
50%50%
eSuba · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
AncienteSuba pick
50%40%
eSuba · 0 mapsedge eSuba +10%DEFEATERS · 1 map
AnubiseSuba ban
40%50%
eSuba · 1 mapedge DEFEATERS +10%DEFEATERS · 0 maps
OverpassDEFEATERS ban
50%60%
eSuba · 0 mapsedge DEFEATERS +10%DEFEATERS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BaneSuba remove Anubis
2. BanDEFEATERS remove Inferno
3. PickeSuba take Ancient
4. PickDEFEATERS take Dust2
5. BanDEFEATERS remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
eSuba 47%DEFEATERS 53%
The model gave 53% on DEFEATERS — the map was taken by eSuba.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
eSuba 53%DEFEATERS 47%
The model gave 53% on eSuba — the map was taken by eSuba.
Model check result
Model favoriteDEFEATERS · 50%
Series resulteSuba 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2