Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
41%53%
1win · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
Dust21win pick
56%60%
1win · 12 mapsnearly even -4%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
AncientBASEMENT BOYS pick
64%67%
1win · 10 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%67%
1win · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
Anubis1win ban
36%60%
1win · 7 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +24%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
71%36%
1win · 3 mapsedge 1win +35%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%57%
1win · 6 mapsnearly even +3%BASEMENT BOYS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Ancient
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
6. Ban1win remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (41% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
1win 44%BASEMENT BOYS 56%
The model gave 56% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by 1win.
Dust2prediction missed16:12
1win 49%BASEMENT BOYS 51%
The model gave 51% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 60%
Series result1win 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2