CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage1win ban
44%67%
1win · 12 mapsedge Butterfly +23%Butterfly · 5 maps
AncientButterfly pick
55%71%
1win · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +16%Butterfly · 3 maps
Dust21win pick
69%60%
1win · 9 mapsedge 1win +9%Butterfly · 1 map
AnubisButterfly ban
44%40%
1win · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Butterfly · 1 map
Overpass1win ban
33%50%
1win · 5 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%60%
1win · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Butterfly · 1 map
InfernoButterfly ban
67%33%
1win · 2 mapsedge 1win +34%Butterfly · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Overpass
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. Ban1win remove Mirage
DeciderCache (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
1win 50%Butterfly 50%
The model gave 50% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
1win 63%Butterfly 37%
The model gave 63% on 1win — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Mirageprediction correct17:19
1win 28%Butterfly 72%
The model gave 72% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 64%
Series resultButterfly 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3