Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Citronloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirage1win ban
41%50%
1win · 13 mapsedge Citron +9%Citron · 0 maps
Dust21win pick
60%60%
1win · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Citron · 1 map
AncientCitron ban
62%50%
1win · 9 mapsedge 1win +12%Citron · 0 maps
Anubis1win ban
36%50%
1win · 7 mapsedge Citron +14%Citron · 0 maps
OverpassCitron pick
33%50%
1win · 5 mapsedge Citron +17%Citron · 0 maps
CacheCitron ban
63%50%
1win · 4 mapsedge 1win +13%Citron · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
71%40%
1win · 3 mapsedge 1win +31%Citron · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Anubis
2. BanCitron remove Ancient
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickCitron take Overpass
5. BanCitron remove Cache
6. Ban1win remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (71% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
1win 60%Citron 40%
The model gave 60% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
1win 64%Citron 36%
The model gave 64% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 78%
Series result1win 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2