WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
57%64%
1win · 3 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +7%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
Mirage1win ban
67%45%
1win · 2 mapsedge 1win +22%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
60%55%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +5%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
40%29%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +11%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
60%50%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%60%
1win · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
6. Ban1win remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
1win 53%CYBERSHOKE 47%
The model gave 53% on 1win — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
1win 73%CYBERSHOKE 27%
The model gave 73% on 1win — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 60%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2