NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
64%59%
1win · 10 mapsedge 1win +5%ex-RUBY · 30 maps
Mirageex-RUBY pick
41%61%
1win · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +20%ex-RUBY · 24 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
55%46%
1win · 7 mapsedge 1win +9%ex-RUBY · 20 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%73%
1win · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +23%ex-RUBY · 26 maps
Overpass1win ban
33%59%
1win · 5 mapsedge ex-RUBY +26%ex-RUBY · 13 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
44%60%
1win · 5 mapsedge ex-RUBY +16%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
57%71%
1win · 3 mapsedge ex-RUBY +14%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
5. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
6. Ban1win remove Overpass
DeciderCache (57% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
1win 32%ex-RUBY 68%
The model gave 68% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by 1win.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
1win 38%ex-RUBY 62%
The model gave 62% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
1win 59%ex-RUBY 41%
The model gave 59% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 51%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3