PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Open Qualifier 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#38 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC#25 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
60%67%
1win · 21 mapedge HEROIC +7%HEROIC · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%64%
1win · 16 mapsnearly even -4%HEROIC · 10 maps
Mirage1win ban
57%73%
1win · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +16%HEROIC · 7 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
62%40%
1win · 9 mapsedge 1win +22%HEROIC · 6 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
63%71%
1win · 4 mapsedge HEROIC +8%HEROIC · 10 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
33%50%
1win · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +17%HEROIC · 0 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%58%
1win · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +8%HEROIC · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanHEROIC remove Cache
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
6. Ban1win remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (60% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
1win 46%HEROIC 54%
The model gave 54% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
1win 37%HEROIC 63%
The model gave 63% on HEROIC — the map was taken by 1win.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
1win 33%HEROIC 67%
The model gave 67% on HEROIC — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 58%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3