NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient1win pick
50%56%
1win · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
50%56%
1win · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Dust21win ban
50%57%
1win · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
Mirage1win ban
50%71%
1win · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +21%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
50%43%
1win · 0 mapsedge 1win +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES ban
50%67%
1win · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Mirage
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
3. Pick1win take Ancient
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Inferno
6. Ban1win remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
1win 42%Nuclear TigeRES 58%
The model gave 58% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by 1win.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
1win 46%Nuclear TigeRES 54%
The model gave 54% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 52%
Series result1win 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2