NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tricked#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoTricked pick
50%56%
1win · 0 mapsedge Tricked +6%Tricked · 5 maps
Mirage1win ban
50%63%
1win · 0 mapsedge Tricked +13%Tricked · 4 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%63%
1win · 0 mapsedge Tricked +13%Tricked · 4 maps
OverpassTricked ban
50%50%
1win · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Tricked · 4 maps
Ancient1win pick
60%40%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +20%Tricked · 1 map
Dust2Tricked ban
60%50%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +10%Tricked · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanTricked remove Dust2
3. Pick1win take Ancient
4. PickTricked take Inferno
5. BanTricked remove Overpass
6. Ban1win remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
1win 40%Tricked 60%
The model gave 60% on Tricked — the map was taken by 1win.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
1win 42%Tricked 58%
The model gave 58% on Tricked — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteTricked · 59%
Series result1win 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2