WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVirtus.pro ban
60%50%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +10%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Dust21win pick
60%50%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +10%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Inferno1win ban
60%50%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +10%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
60%50%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +10%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Inferno
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
1win 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
1win 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on 1win — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2